An economic calendar lists scheduled data releases and central bank events with their time, the currency affected, an impact rating and three numbers: previous, forecast and actual. It is the most important planning tool for anyone trading under prop firm news rules.
Impact levels
Most calendars use three levels (low, medium, high), often shown as colours. For challenge planning, focus on high-impact events in the currencies you trade. Medium events can still move price, but rarely as violently.
Forecast vs actual
Markets react to the surprise, not the number itself. If inflation comes in at 3.2% when 3.0% was expected, the currency usually reacts as if inflation is 'high', even if 3.2% is lower than last month. Revisions to previous numbers also matter.
The releases that move markets most
- US: CPI (inflation), Non-Farm Payrolls, FOMC decisions and press conferences, retail sales, PCE.
- Euro area: ECB decisions, inflation (flash HICP), German data.
- UK: Bank of England decisions, CPI, jobs data.
- Japan: Bank of Japan decisions.
Sunday routine (10 minutes)
- Filter the calendar to high impact and your currencies.
- Write each event and its time in your time zone.
- Block a 'no new trades' window from 30 minutes before to 30 minutes after.
- Mark days with several big events (for example CPI day) as 'reduced size' or 'no trade' days.