Research · Monte Carlo study
How likely are you to pass a prop firm challenge? A Monte Carlo study
In 2,176,000 simulated attempts under Axora Funded's live rules, risk per trade mattered as much as skill: a 50% win rate at 1:1.5 passed the 2-Step 56% of the time at 1% risk and 7% at 2%, while the median strategy with no edge passed 0% of the time (best case 19%).
By the Axora Funded Research Team · Published · Simulation, not historical trader data
- Simulated attempts
- 2,176,000
- Programmes
- 6
- Attempts per cell
- 2,000
- Risk per trade
- 0.25% – 2%
- Win rate
- 30% – 65%
- Reward:risk
- 1:1 · 1:1.5 · 1:2 · 1:3
- Trades per day
- 2
- Rules as of
- November 7, 2026
Key findings
- 1Risk per trade has a sweet spot. For a 50% win rate at 1:1.5 on the 2-Step, the pass probability was 0% at 0.25% risk, 56% at 1% and 7% at 2%.
- 2Too little risk fails on time, too much fails on the daily limit: at 0.25% risk 100% of those attempts ran out of time; at 2%, 93% broke the daily loss limit.
- 3The daily limit is simple arithmetic: with a 4% daily loss limit and 2 trades a day, risking 2% per trade means 2 losses in one day end the attempt, because touching the limit counts as a breach.
- 4Small changes in edge move the result a lot: on the 2-Step at 1% risk and 1:1.5, moving the win rate from 45% to 55% changed the pass probability from 28% to 81%.
- 5Luck alone rarely passes. Across the 306 grid cells with zero or negative expectancy, the median pass probability was 0%. The best case was 19%, on Spark (1-Step Lite) with 0.75% risk, a 50% win rate and 1:1.
- 6There is no universal "right" risk: for the same 50% win rate at 1:1.5, the best risk per trade ranged from 0.25% on Spark (1-Step Lite) to 1% on Pass (pay after passing), because each programme has its own target, limits and time window.
- 7No time limit changes the maths: Spark (1-Step Lite) has none, so at 0.25% risk the same strategy passed 93% of the time, with a median of 56 trading days to pass (the model stops at 120).
Pass probability by risk and win rate
Each cell is 2,000 simulated attempts. Choose a programme and a reward:risk ratio.
| Risk \ Win | 30% | 35% | 40% | 45% | 50% | 55% | 60% | 65% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 0.5% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 37 | 62 | 84 |
| 0.75% | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 41 | 68 | 86 | 97 |
| 1% | 0 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 56 | 81 | 94 | 98 |
| 1.5% | 0 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 50 | 73 | 86 | 94 |
| 2% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 34 |
Same strategy, different programmes
A 50% win rate at 1:1.5 (expectancy +0.25R per trade) on every programme. Best risk = the grid risk level with the highest pass probability.
| Programme | Best risk | Pass at best risk | Pass at 1% | Pass at 2% | Median trading days to pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Step (Classic) | 1% | 56% | 56% | 7% | 22 |
| 1-Step | 1% | 59% | 59% | 19% | 11 |
| Ascent (3-Step) | 0.75% | 36% | 24% | 1% | 30 |
| Spark (1-Step Lite) | 0.25% | 93% | 18% | 8% | 56 |
| Pass (pay after passing) | 1% | 53% | 53% | 18% | 10 |
| Elite ($500K / $1M) | 0.5% | 12% | 0% | not allowed | 30 |
Why attempts fail, by risk per trade
2-Step, 50% win rate at 1:1.5. Shares of all attempts.
| Risk per trade | Passed | Daily loss | Max loss | Out of time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| 0.5% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 84% |
| 0.75% | 41% | 0% | 6% | 53% |
| 1% | 56% | 0% | 21% | 23% |
| 1.5% | 50% | 0% | 47% | 3% |
| 2% | 7% | 93% | 0% | 0% |
Run your own numbers
Same model, same rules and same seed as the study. Change the trades per day to test a different pace.
Probability of passing
56.4%
Expectancy: +0.25R per trade · median 22 days to pass
2,000 simulated attempts with a fixed seed: at 2 trades per day it reproduces the study's figures exactly. A simulation, not a guarantee.
Rules used
The rules Axora Funded applies to new accounts (rule set 3), as of November 7, 2026. All percentages are of the initial balance. Rules are identical across account sizes within a programme. Bolt (instant funding) has no evaluation and futures accounts have size-specific limits, so neither is included. Checked against the live catalogue when this page loaded.
| Programme | Phase | Target | Daily loss | Max loss | Min days | Time limit | Best day | Risk cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Step (Classic) | Phase 1 | +10% | −4% | −8% trailing | 5 | 30 days ≈ 21 trading days | ≤ 50% | — |
| Phase 2 | +5% | −4% | −8% trailing | 5 | 60 days ≈ 43 trading days | ≤ 50% | — | |
| 1-Step | Evaluation | +10% | −3% | −6% trailing | 5 | 30 days ≈ 21 trading days | ≤ 40% | — |
| Ascent (3-Step) | Phase 1 | +6% | −3% | −5% trailing | 3 | 30 days ≈ 21 trading days | ≤ 40% | — |
| Phase 2 | +6% | −3% | −5% trailing | 3 | 30 days ≈ 21 trading days | ≤ 40% | — | |
| Phase 3 | +6% | −3% | −5% trailing | 3 | 30 days ≈ 21 trading days | ≤ 40% | — | |
| Spark (1-Step Lite) | Evaluation | +8% | −2% | −4% trailing | 3 | None (capped at 120 trading days) | ≤ 50% | — |
| Pass (pay after passing) | Evaluation | +10% | −2.5% | −5% trailing | 5 | 30 days ≈ 21 trading days | ≤ 40% | — |
| Elite ($500K / $1M) | Phase 1 | +10% | −2% | −3% trailing | 10 | 30 days ≈ 21 trading days | ≤ 30% | ≤ 1% |
| Phase 2 | +5% | −2% | −3% trailing | 10 | 60 days ≈ 43 trading days | ≤ 30% | ≤ 1% |
Full wording of every rule: Axora Funded trading rules.
Methodology
Each simulated attempt starts every phase at the initial balance. The trader opens 2 trades per trading day, one after the other. Each trade risks a fixed share of the initial balance (r) and wins r × R with probability p, or loses r. Win rate p, reward:risk R and risk r are the grid inputs: 8 win rates × 4 ratios × 6 risk levels × 6 programmes, 2,000 attempts per cell.
After every trade the rules are checked the same way our trading engine checks them: the attempt fails if the balance touches the daily floor (day-start balance minus the daily loss allowance) or the trailing floor (highest balance reached minus the max loss allowance; it never stops trailing). A phase passes when the balance is at or above the target, the minimum trading days are met and the best day is within the consistency share of the total profit. If the target is reached early, the trader keeps trading at the same risk until every condition is met. Multi-phase programmes must pass every phase; days are added across phases.
Time limits are calendar days in the rules; the model converts them to weekdays (5 of every 7, e.g. 30 days ≈ 21 trading days). Phases without a time limit are capped at 120 trading days. Random numbers come from a mulberry32 generator; each cell has its own seed derived from base seed 20261107 and the cell inputs, so every figure on this page is reproducible.
Assumptions and limits
- This is a simulation, not historical trader data. It does not say how many Axora Funded customers pass.
- Trades are independent and identical: no streaks, no position-size changes, no emotional management.
- Each trade closes exactly at its stop or target. Floating losses during a trade, slippage, spreads, commission and price gaps are not modelled.
- Fixed pace of 2 trades per weekday and no pause after a loss; a real trader who stops after two losses would change the results.
- News windows, the weekend close and the open-position limit are not modelled; in practice they reduce trading opportunities.
- With 2,000 attempts per cell the standard error is at most 1.1 percentage points (95% interval about ±2.2 points): small differences between neighbouring cells are not meaningful.
Conflict of interest
Axora Funded is a prop firm: we sell the challenges this study simulates and earn from challenge fees. We publish the model, the exact rules and the raw data so anyone can check or rerun the numbers. All Axora Funded accounts are demo accounts with virtual funds.
Cite this study
You may reuse the figures and the dataset under CC BY 4.0: credit the source and link to this page.
Axora Funded Research Team (2026). How likely are you to pass a prop firm challenge? A Monte Carlo study. Axora Funded. https://axorafunded.com/research/challenge-pass-probability
Questions
What percentage of traders pass a prop firm challenge?
This study does not measure real traders: it simulates strategies under Axora Funded's rules. In the simulation the answer depends mostly on edge and risk. For a 50% win rate at 1:1.5 on the 2-Step, the pass probability ranged from 0% at 0.25% risk to 56% at 1%.
What risk per trade gives the best chance of passing?
It depends on the programme. For a 50% win rate at 1:1.5, the best risk in the grid was between 0.25% and 1% of the initial balance. In all 6 programmes where 2 losses could reach the daily limit within the grid, the pass probability fell at that risk level.
Why does very low risk also fail?
Because most evaluations have a time limit. At 0.25% per trade and 2 trades a day, 100% of 2-Step attempts with a 50% win rate at 1:1.5 ended without reaching the target in time.
Can I reproduce or reuse the results?
Yes. The model uses a fixed-seed random generator, so the same inputs always give the same numbers. The full grid is downloadable as CSV and may be reused with attribution and a link to this page.
Is Axora Funded neutral on this topic?
No. Axora Funded is a prop firm that sells challenges, so we have a commercial interest. That is why the method, rules and raw data are published in full and no real trader data is used.
Test your real win rate before you pay: a free $100,000 account for 14 days with evaluation rules, no card.